The majority of cryptocurrencies are down across the board and Ripple is no exception. At the time of writing, Ripple is down 2.41% over the past 24-hours and is currently trading at a price of $0.65.
Ripple is holding its 3rd position in the coin market cap strongly, with a total market cap of over $25 billion. Although prices may be down over the past 24-hours, Ripple is still experiencing a strong start to the month of June. Prices are currently up 19% from the low seen last month at the $0.54 level. This is a good sign for the bears, as price action has been totally bearish during the month of May, falling from a high of $0.94 to the low mentioned above.
With the recent announcement of a partnership with 17 universities and $50 million funding, it will be exciting to see new developments in the coming months coming from Ripple.
XRP/USD PRICE ANALYSIS
LONG TERM – DAILY CHART
From a long term perspective, we can see that Ripple is trading nether within an uptrend nor a downtrend. Instead, it is choosing to trade within a consolidating market.
We can see that the market experienced an incredible bullish month during the month of December 2017, as price action rose from a low of $0.16 all the way up to a high of $3.53, an incredible 2000% increase in price. Following this, Ripple has continued to decline and has retraced up to the .886 Fibonacci Retracement level at $0.55. This is a Fibonacci Retracement of the bullish run seen in December 2017. We can see that price action has gathered a significant level of support at this level.
Over the past few months, Ripple has been trading within a range-bound market between the .786 and .886 Fibonacci Retracements, at a price of $0.89 and $0.55 respectively. For the market to be considered a bullish market, XRP would need to first break and close above the upper boundary of the range at $0.89. Price action would then have to go on to test and break above the .618 Fibonacci Retracement at $1.45 to be considered bullish in the long term.
SHORT TERM – DAILY CHART
Analysing the chart at a closer distance, we can see that Ripple has been trading within a symmetrical triangle over the past few weeks. We can also see that, over the past month, Ripple has been trading within the .786 – .886 Fibonacci Retracement range highlighted above.
Ripple had experienced a positive start to the month until the market hit resistance today at price of $0.68. It is important to note that this resistance has acted as previous support, so the bulls will require some significant moment to break above.
If price action manages to close today below the open of yesterday’s candle, at price $0.64, then this would constitute to the formation of a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern that would act as a potential signal for the bears to step in and take the market lower. In this case, we would expect price to make an attempt, over the next few days, at the lower boundary of the symmetrical triangle in the hope to find some support.
Alternatively, if price manages to break and close above the level of resistance at $0.68, we could expect the bullish momentum to make an attempt to break above the upper boundary of the triangle. A break of the upper boundary could send a signal throughout the market that bulls are beginning to take control. After a break of the triangle, price action would need to continue and break above the .786 Fibonacci boundary previously discussed.
The technical indicators show some signs of promise ahead for the bulls. The RSI indicator has creeped above the 50 handle indicating the start of the bullish momentum within the market. RSI is currently retesting the 50 handle, if it manages to stay above this level then this would signal that the bullish momentum within the market will continue. A break below the 50 handle would indicate that the bulls are beginning to lose steam within the market. In addition, the 7-day EMA and 21-day EMA are beginning to approach one another. If cross over each other within the next few days this would aid to the bullish sentiment within the market.
A QUICK LOOK INTO XRP/BTC
SHORT TERM – DAILY CHART
Looking at the chart above, we can see that after a bullish spell in April, during the month of May, Ripple had experienced a steep decline against Bitcoin. Price fell from a high of 11000 SATS and had retracted all the way to the .786 Fibonacci Retracement at price 7781 SATS. This is close to a 30% decrease in price from high to low.
Price action had found significant support at this Fibonacci level throughout May and has since rebounded from here. At the time of writing, XRP is trading at around 8600 SATS as it finds resistance at the .50 Fibonacci Retracement level at 8943 SATS.
If bullish momentum can continue and price action can continue above 9000 SATS then we could expect price action to continue on its way up to to test the highs of 11000 SATS set out in April.
Alternatively, if bears prove to overwhelm the bulls then we could expect price action to fall slightly and make attempts to find support at the .786 Fibonacci Retracement level once again.
The technical indicators are also showing positive signs within the market. The RSI has crossed above the 50 level this month, indicating bullish momentum within the market. If it can find support above 50 then we can expect the positive momentum to continue. The 7-day EMA and 21-day EMA have also crossed above one another indicating a possible momentum shift favouring the bulls.
Like most cryptos, June will be a telling month for Ripple. After months of consolidation within 2018 the market will have to breakout at some point soon in one way whether it favours the bulls or the bears.
A positive momentum shift is possible if Ripple can break above the long term range that it currently has been trading within this year.
– Yasin Sheikh