Tron Continues Steep Decline; Completes 100% Retracement of April Bull Run

Tron has experienced a slight rebound from its recent bearish decline totalling a 2.14% increase. The cryptocurrency is currently trading hands at $0.025 and has suffered a precipitous price decline totalling 19% over the past 7 trading days.

Tron is a relatively young coin being only 11 months old. It was founded by Forbes Asia 30 under 30 Justin Sun, whom has been personally mentored by AliBaba founder Jack Ma.

Tron was intended to become a decentralised entertainment content sharing platform, where content owners retain the rights to their creation and in turn the royalties. This effectively cuts out the middleman and removes the content creator from the uncertain danger of being censored by the platform owner, a current hot topic that has seen huge YouTube stars such as Alex Jones  and Logan Paul being censored and removed from YouTube.

Justin Sun has recently announced this week that the Chinese Blockchain research giant, Raybo, has decided to run to become a Tron Super Representative. The SR’s are burdened with maintaining the blockchain and ensuring that all transactions occur as expected. Just Sun himself has previously ran for a SR position, being elected within 24 hours as he received the required amount of votes to be voted in.

Tron is currently ranked at 11th position in terms of overall market cap across the entire industry. Tron currently has a market cap totalling $1.67 billion and has 61% of losses to regain from the past 90 trading days.

Let us continue to analyse Trons price action over its relatively short life span.

Price Analysis

TRX/USD – LONG TERM – DAILY CHART

trx 9 aug

Analysing price action from the short term perspective displayed in the chart above, we can see that the TRX cryptocurrency had experienced a significant bullish run during March/April. Price action started from a low of $0.023 on the 18th of May and continued to rise until it placed the all time high priced at $0.1 on the 30th of April 2018. This was a price increase totalling 320% from low to high.

We can see that after placing the ATH, price action proceeded to roll over during the remainder of May, initially finding support at the .5 Fibonacci Retracement priced at $0.0618. This is a Fibonacci Retracement measured from the entire bullish run aforementioned.

As June began trading, price action fell below the 100 day moving average and continued to fall until the market found support around the .786 Fibonacci Retracement priced at $0.03979. We can see that the market had found support specifically at a short term downside 1.414 Fibonacci Extension level priced at $0.03734. During July, the market continued to fall further lower but found support at the .886 Fibonacci Retracement level priced at $0.032.

The market fell below this level during August, initially finding support at the downside 1.618 Fibonacci Extension priced at $0.028. However, the market fell below this level and completed a 100% retracement from the March/April bullish run as price action approached $0023.

Price action has now reached support at this pivotal support level priced at $0.023 which we expect that the bulls will defend heavily. In the case that Bitcoin drops further lower which pushes price action below $0.023 we expect immediate support to be located at the psychological round number level of $0.02 followed by the $0.019 handle.

Alternatively, if the bulls can gather momentum from this support zone, we expect immediate resistance to be located at April’s price low priced at $0.028. Resistance further above this level is expected at the .886 Fibonacci Retracement priced at $0.032 followed by the .786 Fibonacci Retracement priced at $0.039.

The technical indicators are currently heavily favouring the bears within the market at this moment in time. The RSI is currently trading at extreme oversold conditions indicating that the bears are predominantly in control. For a sign that the bearish pressure is beginning to ease we will look for the RSI to approach the 50 handle once again.

Let us continue to analyse price action for Tron relative to Bitcoin over the same time horizon.

TRX/BTC – SHORT TERM – DAILY CHART

trx 9 aug 2

Analysing the market from the perspective above, we can see that TRX had experienced a bullish run against Bitcoin when price action started from a low of 315 SATS on the 18th of March 2018 and extended to an all time high of 1078 SATS on the 30th of April 2018. This was a price increase totalling 240% from low to high.

After placing the all time high, price action started to pull back, initially finding support at .382 Fibonacci Retracement priced at 785 SATS during May. This Fibonacci Retracement is measured from the entire bullish run outlined in the paragraph above. The market continued to fall further lower during June 2018 as price action found support at the .618 Fibonacci Retracement priced at 606 SATS.

However, the market was still not able to reverse and fell below this support zone during July and August until support was found at the .886 Fibonacci Retracement priced at 401 SATS. We can see that over the past 2 trading sessions the market has penetrated below this level to find support at 390 SATS.

If the bearish momentum continues within this market, we expect immediate support to be located at the downside 1.618 Fibonacci Extension level priced at 372 SATS. Support below this level is expected at 350 SATS followed by 315 SATS.

Alternatively, if the bulls can regain some traction and push price action back above 400 SATS we expect immediate resistance to be located at the .786 Fibonacci Retracement priced at 478 SATS followed by resistance at 500 SATS. The 100 day moving average is currently hovering around 550 SATS and this area will require significant momentum to overcome.

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