The past week has seen some decent price action for the bulls as price had risen from a low of $7,040, on the 29th of May, to a a high of $7,779, set on the 3rd of June.The past week has seen some decent price action for the bulls as price had risen from a low of $7,040, on the 29th of May, to a a high of $7,779, set on the 3rd of June. However, the past two trading sessions have seen negative pressure from the bulls as price has fallen and is currently exchanging hands at $7,419, around a 5% reduction in price from the highs.
Over the past few weeks, there have been some traders that have noticed that the monthly cyclical price action of Bitcoin’s short-term trend has been reversing over the previous five months toward the start of each month. More specifically, since the month of January, Bitcoin has experienced a price reversal on the 6th day of each month as highlighted in the chart below.
The chart above shows the daily price of Bitcoin over the span of the current year. The start of the year is highlighted by the dashed yellow line toward the beginning of the chart. The start of each month is highlighted by a faint gray line and the 6th day of each month is indicated by the bold black vertical lines.
If you closely examine price action around the area of the 6th day of each month, you will see that a short term momentum shift occurs, as the market shifts in market trading conditions. For example, the month of January was, overall, a bearish month starting from the 6th of January. Then on the 6th of February the market shifted in trading conditions from bearish to bullish and remained bullish all up until the 6th of March where the market experienced another reversal and switched from bullish to bearish.
As the 6th of the month approaches, can price action continue to make significant reversals on the 6th day of every month?
Let us examine price action over the past few months and see how likely it is that this reversal might occur.
BTC/USD PRICE ANALYSIS
LONG TERM – DAILY CHART
From a long term perspective, the Bitcoin market has been consolidating within the confines of a symmetrical triangle for the past five months. This means that, on a long term technical basis, the market is neither bullish nor bearish.
Looking at the chart above, we can see that each price reversal that has occured since the 6th of February, has occured on the 6th of the month on either the upper boundary of the symmetrical triangle or the lower boundary of the triangle.
For this market to be considered a bullish market we would need to see price break and hold above the symmetrical triangle before making attempts at the highs set in early May at a price of $9,990.
As the 6th of June rapidly approached could price action follow this recent pattern in reversals?
SHORT TERM – DAILY CHART
Looking at the chart above, we can see that over the past few days Bitcoin had made a small attempt at a recovery but the bulls had ran into resistance close to the .618 Fibonacci Retracement at price $7,836. Since this price has started to retrace lower back toward previous support located at $7,251.
For the 6th day theory, including the reversal occurring at the symmetrical triangle, to hold true, we would need to see price action to reduce by around 5% from current prices, either today or tomorrow, to reach the lower boundary of the symmetrical triangle. Due to the low volume and momentum,this would be a difficult task for price action to fall within such a short space of time.
However, for the original 6th day theory to hold firm without the added confirmation from the technical triangle pattern, price action would just have to make a reversal at the current levels on the 6th of June. If price action manages to reverse on the 6th then we could expect to experience a solid month of gains during the month of June.
The technical indicators are not providing much confidence for the 6th day reversal theory on a daily time frame. RSI is currently trading below the 50 handle indicating the short-term bearish momentum within the market. For a reversal to occur we would need to see RSI battle it’s way up above and hold above 50. To add to this lack of confidence, the 7-day EMA and 21-day EMA are pointing in the downward direction and show no indication that they are ready to pull closer to one another in the short-term.
SHORT TERM – 4-Hr CHART
Taking an even deeper dive into price action, we can see that Bitcoin may actually be showing some short term signs that this 6th day price reversal theory may show some merit.
We can see that price action has retraced up until a short term .50 Fibonacci Retracement level at a price of $7,408. This is a Fibonacci taken from the short term bullish swing from a low seen on the 29th of May to the high seen earlier this month. At the .50 Fibonacci Retracement, price action has managed to find some support and have shown positive signs of reversing. More specifically, price action has managed to show positive signs that the reversal may indeed happen, once again, on the 6th of the month.
The technical indicators, on the 4-hour basis, also aid to the fact that a reversal may occur on the 6th. RSI over the past trading session had reached oversold conditions and has began to show signs of reversing as it makes its way up above 50. If RSI can break above 50 over the next couple of trading sessions then we will be experiencing a price reversal within the market.
As traders, we find technical patterns and make trading decisions based off of the validity of these trading patterns confluencing with one another.
The 6th day theory has shown some merits of validity over the past few months. However, it is important to note that past history of sentiment is not indicative of future sentiment. Meaning that just because a price reversal has happened on the 6th previously, does not mean that it will happen every month on the 6th. It is important for traders to let price action be the deciding factor when beginning to execute on any trade.
It is also important to note that price action has been showing indicators for a potential reversal over the past few weeks now. The reversal seems to be imminent but will it happen on the 6th of June? The good news for traders is that even if it does not occur on the 6th, it will occur over the following few days.
The 6th of the month approaches tomorrow, where we will see if this theory continues to hold its validity.
– Yasin Sheikh